KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Karen Bass, ≥2% 45%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.2K
Low liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 6:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)
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Manifold MarketsWill Nithya Raman Beat Karen Bass? (n/a if doesn’t advance)
Manifold MarketsWill Karen Bass win the Los Angeles general election for mayor in 2026?
ForecastExLos Angeles Mayoral Election
PolymarketRules
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses.
- If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Open markets
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)?
- Kalshi prices Karen Bass, ≥2% at 45% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass) resolve?
- Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass) is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.