KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Karen Bass, ≥2% · —
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Stored price
Karen Bass, ≥2% 35.5%Market line of 5 lines
Karen Bass, ≥2% 35.5%Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$206.8
Open interest
$8.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
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Karen Bass, ≥2%Spread
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Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 6:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Karen Bass, ≥2%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)
KalshiLos Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout
KalshiWill Karen Bass win the Los Angeles general election for mayor in 2026?
ForecastExKaren Bass arrested by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Nithya Raman Beat Karen Bass? (n/a if doesn’t advance)
Manifold MarketsWill Nithya Raman Beat Karen Bass? (n/a if doesn’t advance)
Manifold MarketsRules
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Rules for each outcome
- Karen Bass, ≥2%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Karen Bass, ≥4%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 4% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Karen Bass, ≥6%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 6% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Karen Bass, ≥10%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Karen Bass, ≥8%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 8% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
