120th Congress: Will Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
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Stored price
Yes 91.5%
Yes 91.5%Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.4K
Open interest
$1.8K
Low open interestBid / Ask
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YesSpread
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Market data
Updated 47 minutes ago
LaggingNov 6, 26, 12:00 AM UTCFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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- Early close:
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- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Yes
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives
- The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is 1 if Hakeem Jeffries is declared elected Speaker on it, which requires a majority of the votes cast for a person by name, and 0 otherwise, including if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027. The following do NOT count: A later ballot on which Hakeem Jeffries is elected A first ballot on which no candidate receives a majority, even if Hakeem Jeffries receives the most votes The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.