Will the 120th Congress Speaker be elected on the first ballot?
2.5 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Yes · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
Yes 93%
Yes 93%Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$17.6K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$3.8K
Bid / Ask
— / —
YesSpread
—
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Nov 4, 26, 4:18 AM UTCJan 4, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · Yes
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 119th Congress?
PredictItWill the speaker of the house be ousted in the 119th congress
Manifold Markets120th Congress: Who will run for House Democratic leader?
KalshiWill Chuck Schumer remain the Democratic Leader through the 119th Congress?
PredictIt120th Congress: Who will run for Senate Democratic leader?
Kalshi120th Congress: Who will run for Senate Republican leader?
KalshiRules
The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress is elected on the first ballot.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House.
- Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots.
- A candidate is elected when the Clerk announces that they have received a majority of the votes cast for a person by name on that ballot.