KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: At least 2%
Resolved: Oct 30, 2026, 3:03 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
At least 2%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 2:16 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
At least 8%3%
At least 4%79%
At least 6%61%
At least 9%14%
At least 4%Lost
At least 5%Lost
At least 6%Lost
At least 9%Lost
At least 8%Lost
At least 2%Won
At least 3%Lost
At least 7%Lost
At least 10%Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 2% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Central Elections Committee for the Knesset
- The value is the combined percentage of valid votes cast for all lists that fail the 3.25% electoral threshold in Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election (the lists allocated no seats), calculated as 100 × (the sum of the votes received by those lists ÷ total valid votes) using the per-list vote totals and total valid votes in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results, rounded to two decimal places. Whether a list passes the threshold is decided on unrounded vote totals: a list whose unrounded share is 3.25% or more is not counted, and only the combined value is rounded. A joint list counts as one list. A list that has withdrawn from the race but remains on the ballot is counted if the results record votes for it. Preliminary results do not qualify. Invalid ballots are excluded from the numerator and the denominator. If no qualifying results are released by expiration, the market resolves to the last fair price as determined by the Exchange.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 4%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 4% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 5% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 6%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 6% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 9%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 9% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 8%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 8% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 2%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 2% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 3%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 3% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 7%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 7% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 10%
- If the combined share of valid votes cast for lists below the 3.25% electoral threshold in the Central Elections Committee for the Knesset’s first official final results is at least 10% in the October 27, 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.