Current implied probability
Likud 48%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$38.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
44.0% / 49.0%
Spread
11.4%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 15, 25, 2:00 PMOct 27, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Likud48%
Also available on Polymarket
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
0.5%3mo
+0.5%51%
34%
-0.5%12%
+36 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$62.8K
24h Vol$508.6
POLYMARKETRules
If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election in 2026 is Likud, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority.
- For a parliamentary or legislative election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government.
- If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote.
- If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years.
- Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the winner of the next Israeli legislative election in 2026 is Likud, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority.
- For a parliamentary or legislative election, the winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats in the specified chamber, even if they do not form the government.
- If there is a tie for the most seats, the winner is the party that enters government; if that doesn't resolve the tie, the winner is the party with the higher share of the vote.
- If an election is postponed, the contract remains open until the new date, for a maximum of two years.
- Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction.