Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Yashar win?
11.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElection13d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above 20 · —
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Stored price
Above 29 1.5%Market line of 7 lines
Above 29 1.5%Market quality
57 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Open interest
$6.5K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 20Spread
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Market data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Aug 28, 26, 10:00 PM UTCNov 11, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
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Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 20
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Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu remain the leader of the Likud party for the next Israeli legislative elections? 🗳️
Manifold MarketsRules
If Yashar has won above 29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Central Elections Committee
- Note: If Yashar runs in this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by that list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party before the election, all seats won by the merged party will be counted, as will any seats won by a joint candidate list the merged party runs on. Yashar refers to the party led by Gadi Eisenkot at issuance. A name change alone does not change its identity. If neither Yashar nor a qualifying joint list or merged successor contests the election, its seat count is zero. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 20
- If Yashar has won above 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 17
- If Yashar has won above 17 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 29
- If Yashar has won above 29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 35
- If Yashar has won above 35 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 26
- If Yashar has won above 26 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 23
- If Yashar has won above 23 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 32
- If Yashar has won above 32 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes.
