KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityRepublican party 15%+3.0%
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$751.4
Liquidity
$4.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 15.0%
Spread
25.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jan 7, 26, 1:04 AMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Republican party15%
Compare venues· Democratic Party
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall60% match · verified | Medium | 84% | 0pt | $1.7K | $34.9K | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 88% | +4pt | $751.4 | $4.1K | 16 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
AZ-04 House Election Winner
3.5%3mo
84%
-3.5%14%
0%
+5 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$19.9K
24h Vol$1.7K
POLYMARKETRules
If the House member sworn in for AZ-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If the House member sworn in for AZ-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$751Jul 32d of dataJul 10
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If the House member sworn in for AZ-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If the House member sworn in for AZ-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.