KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 30 30.3%-17.0ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1
Liquidity
$107K
High liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 4:00 PM UTCJan 5, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsRules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:IMF PortWatch
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Above 30 at 30% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? resolve?
- How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 5, 2027.
- How is How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is the named outcome after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.