KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 17, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 0%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiAI will kill everyone by mandating toxic vaccines
Manifold MarketsWill a rogue AI kill a human before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
Manifold MarketsRules
If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabling of an operating AI model or system to address safety or security risks or loss of control.
- The government may act directly or compel a developer, operator, or service provider to carry out the shutdown, including through a court order.
- A company-controlled kill switch alone does not qualify.
- Neither does authority limited to blocking future development or release, or a general power to regulate AI without authority to stop an operating system.
- The government need not own or physically operate the shutdown mechanism, and the authority need not be used before the deadline.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt76%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)2%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.9%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.7%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $219.7M
- 24h Vol
- $802.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $31.9M
- 24h Vol
- $720.1K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.3pt16%
+48 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt5%
- July0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+5.0pt56.9%
- D-House, R-Senate31.4%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt10.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Texas Senate winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Florida Governor winner?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 0% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch? resolve?
- When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.