KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2028 25.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 25.5%Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$750.5
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiAI will kill everyone by mandating toxic vaccines
Manifold MarketsWhen will a US government AI run overtake private AI compute by FLOP?
Manifold MarketsWill Yudkowsky claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim?
Manifold MarketsRules
If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must expressly authorize the U.S. government to initiate the shutdown, suspension, or technical disabling of an operating AI model or system to address safety or security risks or loss of control. The government may act directly or compel a developer, operator, or service provider to carry out the shutdown, including through a court order. A company-controlled kill switch alone does not qualify. Neither does authority limited to blocking future development or release, or a general power to regulate AI without authority to stop an operating system. The government need not own or physically operate the shutdown mechanism, and the authority need not be used before the deadline. A later effective date does not delay qualification. An example of this is the AI Kill Switch Act (H.R. 9917).
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If federal legislation authorizing government-initiated AI shutdowns has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
