Current community forecast
No 72.3%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJun 3, 24, 2:10 PM UTCJan 1, 36, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Criteria for Resolution:
- Claim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made.
- The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.
- Types of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as "certain”, "almost sure”, "pretty certain”, "almost inevitable", or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 90% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.
- If resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.
- Verification of Ambiguity:
