KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic party 81.4%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Democratic party 81.4%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$3K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
81.0% / 84.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 2:00 AM UTCNov 6, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Rules
If the the named outcome wins young men (18-29) in the 2026 United States midterm elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:CNN
- For purposes of this market, a party “wins” young men (18-29) if it receives the higher reported share among that group in the national U.S. House exit poll.
- If the relevant parties are tied, each tied strike will receive 1/N of the Settlement Value, where N is the number of tied strikes.
- CNN is the primary resolution source, using the applicable figure displayed at Nov 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
- If the figure is unavailable at that time, CNN will remain the primary source for 24 additional hours.
- After that, CBS and then ABC will be used, in that order, through Nov 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic party is 90%. The venue spread is about 7 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference Democratic party 90% · 2 venues · 7 pt venue spread
