How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (10/4 - 10/10)
35.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection15d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 1 24%-35.0ptMarket line of 5 lines
Above 1 24%-35.0ptMarket quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Open interest
$5.3K
Medium open interestSpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Oct 3, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 24, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the President signs above 1 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Register
- How this is resolved The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to. For example, if the period was "Jan 1, 2025 to Jan 7, 2025," and on January 10th the Federal Register published a numbered Executive Order with a January 7th signing date, the market would resolve to Yes. Payout criteria An "Executive Order" is a numbered presidential directive that: is formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, is signed by the President, is published in the Federal Register, and has the force of law. All documents officially designated as "Executive Orders" with sequential numbering count, including Executive Orders that are later revoked or amended. Expiration date The latest Expiration Date of the Contract shall be two weeks after the end of the period. If an Executive Order that is dated past Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026 is posted to the Federal Register, expiration may be moved to an earlier date.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 0
- If the President signs above 0 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 1
- If the President signs above 1 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 2
- If the President signs above 2 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 3
- If the President signs above 3 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 4
- If the President signs above 4 executive orders during Oct 4, 2026 to Oct 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
