Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 96.3%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 24, 8:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
Manifold MarketsIf the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
Manifold MarketsHow many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12)
KalshiHow many bills will President Trump sign in Sep 2026?
KalshiWill Trump sign any cannabis-related legislation during his second term?
Manifold MarketsHow many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/30 - 9/5)
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will trump sign a 'national abortion ban' by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will trump sign a 'national abortion ban' by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will trump sign a 'national abortion ban' by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.