Will Democrats win a House supermajority in the Midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms2moAt least 290
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 95%
No 95%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$9.1K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 3:00 AM UTCJan 3, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
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Trends
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Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
PolymarketConditional on which Party wins the Presidency in 2024, will Democrats win the House in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?
Manifold MarketsIF democrats win the house, will Hakeem Jeffries be their speaker?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republicans win the Senate and Democrats win the House in the 2026 election?
ForecastExIf Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms, will they also win the Senate?
Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The New York TimesThe Associated PressDecision Desk HQCNNFox NewsNBC NewsCBS NewsABC News
- A seat counts only if the relevant election authority records a Democratic designation for the winning candidate’s candidacy in the November 3, 2026 general election; a recognized state affiliate (including the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party), any one of several ballot lines, or a declared write-in candidacy so recorded all qualify. Caucus affiliation, endorsements and later party changes do not affect the count: a member elected without a Democratic designation who caucuses with Democrats is not counted, and one elected as a Democratic candidate who later leaves remains counted. Only the regular general election in each of the 435 congressional districts for the term beginning January 3, 2027 counts; a special election for a 119th Congress vacancy is disregarded whenever held. No district counts twice. Seats are counted from Designated Media Source calls as they stand at the Expiration time, not from House composition on any later date; the eight rank equally. A seat is counted when at least four have declared its winner with no contradictory declaration then outstanding; withdrawn or superseded declarations are disregarded. A seat not counted under that four-of-eight test is attributed to the candidate the state certifies as elected. A runoff seat is counted when that contest is called. Designated Media Source declarations. For United States based elections, this Contract may be resolved on an accelerated basis if (A) at least four (4) of the eight (8) Designated Media Sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and (B) none of the Designated Media Sources have issued a contradictory declaration. “Designated Media Sources” are: The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News. Should one of the Designated Media Sources cease to provide independent election calls, it may be replaced at the sole discretion of the Exchange. For the purposes of this clause, a source declares a winning candidate, party, or option when it makes either (i) a formal projection of victory by its centralized decision desk, or (ii) an unambiguous statement in a news article that the candidate/party/option has won. For the network sources (Fox, NBC, CBS, ABC), a declaration from a local affiliate may represent the parent network; however, a declaration from the national desk shall always supersede any affiliate’s call. In all instances, a parent network and all of its affiliates shall collectively constitute a single source for the purpose of this clause.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.