KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningSource data degradedStale data
Data as of Nov 11, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Jan 1, 2028 · —
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Stored price
Before Jan 1, 2028 68.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 68.5%Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2.8K
Open interest
$3.2K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 1, 2028Spread
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Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 9, 26, 9:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 1, 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SNAP benefit restrictions become law?
KalshiWill LLM restrictions become law?
KalshiWill China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Manifold MarketsWill an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must impose a binding restriction or requirement on exports of advanced AI chips or of semiconductor manufacturing equipment or components. Export bans, license requirements or licensing standards, location-verification or other end-use security mechanisms on exported chips, mandatory congressional review of chip export licenses, and directives requiring the Bureau of Industry and Security to impose such controls, including by writing existing controls into statute, qualify. The restriction may be part of a broader law, such as the National Defense Authorization Act, and a later effective date does not delay qualification. Studies, reports, briefings, funding, sense-of-Congress provisions, and controls only on other goods, on investment, or on remote or cloud access to chips do not qualify. General sanctions, embargoes, or entity listings that restrict all exports to a country or company, without a restriction specific to chips or chipmaking equipment, do not qualify. An example of this is the Chip Security Act, which would require location verification on exported advanced AI chips.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If federal legislation restricting exports of advanced AI chips or semiconductor manufacturing equipment has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
