By Jan 1, 2027
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:03 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 93.1%
No 93.1%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$209
Open interest
$15.8K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 25, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
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KalshiWill OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE America Act become law?
KalshiRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- The bill must impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models: forbid their creation; set limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with; prevent their use for certain applications or uses, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web; or restrict the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restrict US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities. The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products. An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
