Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
One-OffAIRegulationUS PoliticsTech2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 74.9%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJun 13, 26, 9:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Llama 4 be fully open-weight?
Manifold MarketsWeights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?
Manifold MarketsAn open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26
Manifold MarketsWhen will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?
Manifold MarketsWill LLM restrictions become law in 2026?
KalshiWill Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions?
KalshiRules
For the purposes of this market, “to introduce a domestic restriction on open-weight LLMs” means new federal action that removes or limits US citizens’ ability to develop, access, use, or modify one or more open-weight LLMs. “New” is relative to this market’s creation on June 13, 2026.
- I will resolve to YES if, by the end of 2026, this occurs, is publicly reported, and is documented on this market.
- I will resolve to NO at the close of the market otherwise.
- Update 2026-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A supply chain risk designation applied to an open-weight model (similar to the one applied to Claude) would not resolve this market YES.
- The market tracks new general restrictions on what Americans can do with open-weight LLMs, not restrictions limited to government/defense contractor usage.
