Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 88.4%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 28, 26, 2:02 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?
Manifold MarketsA 70B model beats Opus 4.7 on LMArena
Manifold MarketsWill Llama 4 be fully open-weight?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRules
LMArena, text, overall, style control on.
- An open weight model get above "claude-opus-4.7” by the end of the year 2026
