Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast1.75T+ 100%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
16
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 3:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
Total parameters
- At market creation (2026-06-25), the largest open weight model is DeepSeek V4 by DeepSeek, with 1.6T total parameters.
- This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models.
- For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.
