Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast1.75T+ 100%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 26, 3:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
100%
100%
100%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Llama 4 be fully open-weight?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWill any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Total parameters
- At market creation (2026-06-25), the largest open weight model is DeepSeek V4 by DeepSeek, with 1.6T total parameters.
- This market will only consider models that are "pretty good", and will exclude exceedingly large but useless models.
- For example, someone initializing 100T weights at random and uploading the weights online would not count for the purpose of this market.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices 1.75T+ at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027? resolve?
- Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Total parameters