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Data as of Sep 9, 2026, 2:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Pauline Hanson 22%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$359.8
Low liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 8:31 PM UTCSep 23, 29, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Rules
If the named outcome becomes Prime Minister of Australia as a result of government formation following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 23, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Parliament of Australia
- The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).
- If no government forms by Sep 23, 2029, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes.
- If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Prime Minister of Australia after the next election??
- Kalshi prices Pauline Hanson at 22% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? resolve?
- Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? is scheduled to resolve on September 23, 2029.
- How is Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome becomes Prime Minister of Australia as a result of government formation following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 23, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.