Current implied probability
Labour Party 34.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
36.0% / 37.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Mar 4, 26, 5:51 PMJan 1, 31, 12:00 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Labour Party37%
Compare venues· Labour party
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Kalshi
Which party will win the next UK general election?
5.7 pts3y
37.4%
31.3%
20.2%
+5 more outcomes
59 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$241.1K
24h Vol$26.4
KALSHI
Also available on Manifold Markets
Which party will the Prime Minister after the next UK general election be from?
2y
+1.1pt43%
-1.9pt35.1%
+0.6pt13.7%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast55 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Which party will win the next UK general election? If a party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, the corresponding contract resolves to Yes.
- If two parties tie in seat count, the party with the higher vote share resolves to Yes.
- Results verified by credible reporting including The New York Times and the UK House of Commons.
- This event is mutually exclusive.
- If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Which party will win the next UK general election? If a party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, the corresponding contract resolves to Yes.
- If two parties tie in seat count, the party with the higher vote share resolves to Yes.
- Results verified by credible reporting including The New York Times and the UK House of Commons.
- This event is mutually exclusive.
- If the Labour party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.