Current implied probability
Labour Party 39.5%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 15, 29, 12:00 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If not Labour, Reform or Conservatives, which party will the UK PM be from after the next election?
Manifold MarketsWill the Labour Party win the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsWho will lead the Conservative Party into the next UK general election?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will the next UK general election be held?
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
Which party will win the next UK general election? If a party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, the corresponding contract resolves to Yes.
- If two parties tie in seat count, the party with the higher vote share resolves to Yes.
- Results verified by credible reporting including The New York Times and the UK House of Commons.
- This event is mutually exclusive.
- If the the named outcome receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from The New York Times and the House of Commons.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-32.1pt53.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez+31.5pt45.4%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $713.5K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $562K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.6M
- 24h Vol
- $464.3K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will win the next UK general election??
- Gemini prices Labour Party at 40% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Which party will win the next UK general election? resolve?
- Which party will win the next UK general election? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Which party will win the next UK general election? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Which party will win the next UK general election? If a party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, the corresponding contract resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Which party will win the next UK general election? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Manifold Markets.