Current implied probability
No 80%
No 80%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityTraders
2
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Roblox's age verification system before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout
Manifold MarketsUS bans social media for children in 2026?
KalshiWhen will the UK's social media ban take effect?
KalshiCanada passes under-16 social media ban in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If, between January 1, 2026 00:00:00 UTC and December 31, 2026 22:59:59 UTC, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is formally adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is the Official Journal of the European Union (eur-lex.europa.eu), supported by the European Commission's press releases. "Adopted" means the legal act has completed the EU legislative process (i.e., signed and published in the Official Journal); proposals, Council positions, or Parliament-only readings do not count.
- National-level laws by individual Member States (e.g., France, Germany), Council Recommendations without binding effect, and non-EU bodies (e.g., UK Online Safety Act) do not count.
- Voluntary industry codes adopted under existing EU frameworks (such as the DSA) that do not introduce new mandatory age verification do not count.
- A consensus of credible reporting (e. g.