Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 67.9%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 25, 25, 5:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a data leak of personal information sent to Roblox's age verification system before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Discord Cancel Age Verification Rollout
Manifold MarketsIf Discord rolls out global age verification requirements, will the age verification data be breached in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?
FutuurTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if I manage to find a news article that describes this (or multiple plausible-seeming Reddit posts).
- Update 2025-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve to YES if the blackmail incident originates from either of the following sources:
- Breaches of legitimate age verification firms
- People being tricked into sharing face scans (e.g., through scams or phishing)
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $21K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-4.0pt17%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Total Vol
- $585.2K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+5.5pt70.3%
- Yes-5.5pt29.7%
- Total Vol
- $410.6K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+0.5pt13%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++3.0pt39.2%
- 20–40+3.0pt10.8%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan-2.0pt22%
- Mahmoud Khalil-1.0pt16%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero+2.0pt15%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027? resolve?
- Will people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will people get blackmailed due to UK's age verification law before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if I manage to find a news article that describes this (or multiple plausible-seeming Reddit posts).