Which party will lead in RCP Congressional generic ballot polling for Oct. 20?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms
PredictItClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
Unverified resolution data: Democrats 8.5%-8.9% (99%)
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 20, 2026, 2:59 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Dem<6.0%, Tie or GOP2%
Democrats 6.0%-6.4%2%
Democrats 6.5%-6.9%2%
Democrats 7.0%-7.4%2%
Democrats 7.5%-7.9%0%
Democrats 8.0%-8.4%3%
Democrats 8.5%-8.9%0%
Democrats 9.0%-9.4%2%
Democrats ≥ 9.5%2%
Democrats 8.5%-8.9%Awaiting result
Democrats 7.5%-7.9%Awaiting result
Democrats 8.0%-8.4%Awaiting result
Democrats 7.0%-7.4%Awaiting result
Democrats 9.0%-9.4%Awaiting result
Democrats ≥ 9.5%Awaiting result
Dem<6.0%, Tie or GOPAwaiting result
Democrats 6.0%-6.4%Awaiting result
Democrats 6.5%-6.9%Awaiting result
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KalshiRules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the RealClearPolling average "2026 Generic Congressional Vote" leader and spread at the End Date listed below.
- The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls, available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote ("the Settlement Source"), as shown on devices set to Eastern Time.
Any number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the difference between the two parties' support (currently labelled "Spread") will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
Should the Settlement Source be unavailable at the End Date, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 10/20/2026 11:00 AM (ET)
