Which party will lead in RCP Congressional generic ballot polling for Nov. 3?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1d
PredictItCheck availabilityKYC requiredUnverified resolution dataRetail prediction exchange
Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 11:58 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Dem<6.0%, Tie or GOP 0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Dem<6.0%, Tie or GOP 0%Methodology
Retail prediction exchange
Question type
-
24h Volume
—
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 27, 26, 3:54 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 4:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the RealClearPolling average "2026 Generic Congressional Vote" leader and spread at the End Date listed below.
- The approval rating shall be drawn from the table of individual polls, available upon launch of this market at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote ("the Settlement Source"), as shown on devices set to Eastern Time.
Any number displayed at the Settlement Source at the End Date other than the difference between the two parties' support (currently labelled "Spread") will be irrelevant for purposes of this market.
Should the Settlement Source be unavailable at the End Date, PredictIt will, at its sole discretion, await an update, select the most recent data point in the identified series or an alternate source, or construct its own polling average.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 11/03/2026 11:00 AM (ET)
