PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 29 30%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.9K
Liquidity
$35.1K
High liquiditySpread
4.8 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 11:38 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 8:59 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?
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PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt62%
- October 31-2.5pt37%
- September 30-2.0pt9%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.1M
- 24h Vol
- $546.1K
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms+0.7pt14%
- Save the Children+1.3pt11%
- Yulia Navalnaya-1.0pt7%
+28 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+2.0pt79.2%
- Yes-2.0pt20.8%
- Total Vol
- $12.6M
- 24h Vol
- $324.3K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 25+0.4pt97%
- September 30-1.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.3M
- 24h Vol
- $259.4K
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt32%
- October 31-5.0pt16%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.7M
- 24h Vol
- $109.1K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $68.4M
- 24h Vol
- $108.1K
- Trump renames AI by September 30?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- US-Yemen ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ukraine target Moscow on??
- Polymarket prices September 29 at 30% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Will Ukraine target Moscow on? resolve?
- Will Ukraine target Moscow on? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Ukraine target Moscow on? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time.