Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74.8%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 19, 26, 1:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump visit Moscow (capital of Russia) in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine target Moscow on?
PolymarketWas the Moscow concert hall attack a false flag?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketWhich cities will Russia enter by December 31?
PolymarketWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if the gay club known as 'Central Station Moscow' shuts down by the end of 2026 and is closed for 90 consecutive days.
- This market will otherwise resolve NO.
- Clarifications
- It will be presumed that Central Station Moscow has not shut down until there is reason to believe otherwise.
- In order for the market to resolve YES, the 90-day shutdown period must begin before the end of 2026 but does not need to occur entirely within 2026.
Open markets
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms+0.7pt14%
- Save the Children+2.4pt12%
- Yulia Navalnaya-0.5pt7%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $24.8M
- 24h Vol
- $337.1K
POLYMARKETWhich cities will Russia enter by December 31?
- Druzkhivka-4.5pt40%
- Kramatorsk-1.0pt19%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $163.1K
POLYMARKETWhere will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- China-6.0pt64.1%
- No meeting by December 31+1.0pt25.2%
- United States+6.0pt7.8%
+12 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 202712%
- December-0.1pt4%
- September 30,-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt31%
- October 31-3.0pt18%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.7M
- 24h Vol
- $109.7K
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt73%
- November 30,70%
- September 30,+0.5pt65%
+15 more outcomes
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Russia military action against EU country by which date?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by which date?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the largest gay club in Moscow shut down in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74.8% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Will the largest gay club in Moscow shut down in 2026? resolve?
- Will the largest gay club in Moscow shut down in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the largest gay club in Moscow shut down in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria