Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by which date?
0.3 pts (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored reference
December 31 3%Leader of 4 outcomes
December 31 3%Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.1K
Liquidity
$97.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
December 31Spread
—
Comments
1,176
7d Change
+0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Sep 6, 25, 9:07 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
December 31, 2025Lost
January 31Lost
March 31Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Market depth · December 31
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
