PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$24
Liquidity
$76.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 3.1%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
40
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jan 5, 26, 7:13 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? resolve?
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.