Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?
0.8 pts (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsEurope6d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%-0.8pt
Market quality
83 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$28.5K
Liquidity
$48.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.8% / 3.2%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
55
7d Change
+1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 6:07 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Spanish government explicitly claims that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx of migrants that occurred in the Spanish territory of Ceuta on July 30, 2026, by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the Spanish Central government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx.
- A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify.
- Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify.
- Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to Morocco (e.g., "this would not have happened if Morocco spent more on border security") will not qualify.