PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
June 30, 2027 36%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$213.1
Liquidity
$163.2K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
7
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 17, 26, 4:25 PMJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
- Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for December 31 is 6%. Quotes span about 44 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference December 31 6% · 2 venues · 44 pt venue spread
