KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Oct 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Oct 1, 2027 55.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Before Oct 1, 2027 55.5%Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.2K
Open interest
$83.2K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before Oct 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 48 minutes ago
LaggingJun 30, 26, 3:17 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Oct 1, 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by which date?
LimitlessWill Samuel Alito leave Supreme Court in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Justice Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the Supreme Court?
FutuurWill Samuel Alito leave the Supreme Court before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.