PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
August 11 100%Leader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$12.5K
Liquidity
$63.7K
High liquiditySpread
34.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
+4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 8:20 AMAug 31, 26, 8:59 PM
Trends
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- August 22+1.8pt100%
- August 25+1.1pt97%
- August 31+1.0pt89%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $587.3K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.9pt69%
- October 31-0.5pt42%
- September 3027%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNATO downs another Russian drone by which date?
- August 31100%
- July 31-1.4pt0%
- Total Vol
- $491K
- 24h Vol
- $239.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt70%
- New People (NL)+2.1pt24%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt5%
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt88.1%
- Yes-1.0pt11.9%
- Total Vol
- $3M
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt19%
- October 31-3.0pt10%
- September 30-1.0pt8%
+9 more outcomes
- Will Iran target a Arab country on?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia target Kyiv on??
- Polymarket prices August 11 at 100% as of August 23, 2026.
- When does Will Russia target Kyiv on? resolve?
- Will Russia target Kyiv on? is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2026.
- How is Will Russia target Kyiv on? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time.