Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
0.3 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsEuropeGeopolitics3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93%+0.3pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$13.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.6% / 8.4%
Spread
2.8 pt
Moderate spreadComments
7
7d Change
+1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jan 16, 26, 5:39 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? resolve?
- Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.