PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 49%+0.1%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$108.2
Liquidity
$1.6K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
46.0% / 51.0%
Spread
10.9%
Wide spread7d Change
+10.5%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Apr 23, 26, 10:32 PMMar 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes49%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
US recession by end of 2026?
$3.7KYes: 20%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$9155.0%: 17%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?
$300Yes: 27.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSJune Unemployment Rate
$155.34.4%: 34%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US real GDP growth in 2030?
$154.92.6% to 3.0%: 11%
KALSHI
KALSHIWill Nigeria have a larger GDP than South Africa in 2026?
$92.8Yes: 47.8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters.
- Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.