PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 90%-4.0pt
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$1.9K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 11.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
3
7d Change
+2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 23, 26, 10:25 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters.
- Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt79.2%
- No change-1.0pt19.8%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.9M
- 24h Vol
- $7.8M
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No93%
- Yes+3.0pt7%
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $21.2K
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.7K
- 24h Vol
- $7.2K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.2%+18.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%98%
- Above -0.2%97%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $98.2K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
KALSHI2026: Trump's dream year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $576.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.8K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Total Vol
- $406.8K
- 24h Vol
- $4K
- US recession by end of 2026?
- Recession this year?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Unemployment in September
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
- Will Trump bring back manufacturing?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for UK Recession in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 90% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does UK Recession in 2026? resolve?
- UK Recession in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is UK Recession in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026.