PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 86.1%+0.0pt
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$526.9
Liquidity
$447.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 16.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Apr 23, 26, 10:25 PMMar 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes14%
Volume trend
$527Jul 419d of dataJul 29
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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FORECASTEXActive in these topics
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Kingdom’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP, as reported by the Office for National Statistics, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q1 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Office for National Statistics’ GDP first quarterly estimate, UK releases and the updated GDP quarterly national accounts, UK releases for the relevant quarters.
- Monthly GDP estimates will not be considered.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.