GeminiLimited verified dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probabilityYes 8.5%
Market quality
19 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 13.0%
Spread
9.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Mar 4, 26, 11:44 AMFeb 1, 27, 4:59 AM
8.5%
Mock trading isn't available for this market.
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall100% match · auto | High | 11% | 0pt | $3K | $809.6K | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 9% | -2pt | $0 | $0 | 15 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Recession this year?
6mo
89%
11%
85 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.9M
24h Vol$3K
KALSHIRules
Recession this year?
- If there are two consecutive quarters of negative U.S.
- GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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US economic state at the end of 2026?
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Rules
Recession this year?
- If there are two consecutive quarters of negative U.S.
- GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.