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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Economy
  3. Japan recession in 2026?
Japan recession in 2026?

Japan recession in 2026?

EconomyOne-OffUS Politics9mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 26%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$729.8

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

16.0% / 35.0%

Spread

118.8%

Wide spread
7d Change

-5.5%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Apr 23, 26, 10:27 PMMar 31, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes26%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
  • This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
  • Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
  • For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
  • This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
  • Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
  • For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.