PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93%+0.5pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$25
Liquidity
$981.3
Low liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 8.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
1
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 23, 26, 10:20 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters.
- This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release.
- Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions.
- For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Total Vol
- $366K
- 24h Vol
- $12.7K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.4K
- 24h Vol
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US recession by end of 2026?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Japan recession in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Japan recession in 2026? resolve?
- Japan recession in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Japan recession in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026.