PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Nov 3, 2026, 4:58 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
2028 · —
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Stored reference
2028 16%
2028 16%Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$3.5K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$404.8
Bid / Ask
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2028Spread
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Comments
1
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jun 10, 26, 2:31 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · 2028
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Congress enact an increase in the retirement age for Social Security before the end of 2028?
ForecastExWill Social Security cease to be by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
KalshiWill social security go bankrupt by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I still feel that it is important to protect my social security number (SSN) in 2050?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated.
- A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
- A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
- The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.