PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 25, 2026, 12:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability2028 25%-1.0%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$3.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 14.0%
Spread
180.0%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.5%
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jun 10, 26, 2:31 AMJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
202825%
Volume trend
$10Jul 52d of dataJul 6
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated.
- A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.
- A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.
- The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.