PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
June 30, 2027 21%+1.0pt
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5
Liquidity
$18.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
19.0% / 22.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 14, 26, 2:17 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by which date?
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Manifold MarketsWill Turkey bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur: - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner; - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or - the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
- Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
- Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
