PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
36.5–36.9 74.6%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
36.5–36.9 74.6%Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$973.4
Liquidity
$897.5
Low liquiditySpread
6.6 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Oct 2, 26, 10:10 PM UTCOct 10, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/2-10/9)
KalshiHow low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
PolymarketHow high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on October 9, 2026.
- Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
- This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date.
- Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
- If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
- The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Trump's approval rating on Oct 9, 2026? · 37.6 to 37.8 49%