PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democrat 98%-0.6ptLeader of 13 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$45.4K
High liquiditySpread
2.2 pt
Moderate spreadComments
1
7d Change
-0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Oct 13, 25, 9:35 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
- A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question.
- Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
- Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference Jeff Merkley 98% · 2 venues · 0 pt band
- Also available on Kalshi — Oregon Senate winner? · Jeff Merkley 97%
- Also available on Gemini — Oregon US Senate Winner · Jeff Merkley 95%
- Also available on Smarkets — Oregon Senate Election Winner · Democrat 97%
Open markets
Politics
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-8.0pt64.2%
- Ralph Norman+7.0pt27.5%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $13.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.3pt34.7%
- Édouard Philippe27.4%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.5%
- Gavin Newsom+2.0pt15.5%
+44 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $187.1M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.2pt32.7%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt4%
+29 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance20%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt12%
+125 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $690.6M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt85.7%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.3%
- Total Vol
- $23.7M
- 24h Vol
- $585.9K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Oregon Senate Election Winner?
- Polymarket prices Democrat at 98% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Oregon Senate Election Winner resolve?
- Oregon Senate Election Winner is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Oregon Senate Election Winner settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
- Where else is Oregon Senate Election Winner listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Gemini, Smarkets.