Current implied probability
Ed Miliband 52%+0.5%Leader of 35 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.7K
Liquidity
$277.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
51.0% / 52.0%
Spread
2.0%
Tight spread7d Change
-11.0%
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
Jun 21, 26, 8:23 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Ed Miliband52%
Compare venues· Ed Miliband
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageMost active | 52% | 0pt | $5.7K | $277.2K | 26 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi | 72% | +20pt | $1.2K | $29.5K | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?
3.0%6mo
+3.0%72%
+4.0%19%
3%
+12 more outcomes
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$52.8K
24h Vol$1.2K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch.
- Any interim or caretaker Chancellor of the Exchequer will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- If no such Chancellor of the Exchequer is appointed, or Rachel Reeves is re-appointed as Chancellor of the Exchequer, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Chancellor in 2026”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$5.7kJul 27d of dataJul 8
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This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch.
- Any interim or caretaker Chancellor of the Exchequer will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- If no such Chancellor of the Exchequer is appointed, or Rachel Reeves is re-appointed as Chancellor of the Exchequer, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Chancellor in 2026”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.