Israel military action against Gaza on?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probability
April 3 100%+57.5ptLeader of 30 outcomes
Market quality
7 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 142 days ago
StaleMar 24, 26, 5:14 PMApr 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
- A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
- The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israel military action against Gaza on??
- Polymarket prices April 3 at 100% as of April 12, 2026.
- When does Israel military action against Gaza on? resolve?
- Israel military action against Gaza on? is scheduled to resolve on April 30, 2026.
- How is Israel military action against Gaza on? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".