Israel + Hamas hostage deal by Ramadan?
Geopolitics
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: No
Resolved: Mar 11, 2024, 12:01 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Probability Timeline
Yes0%
No100%
NoWon
YesLost
Rules
On Feb 18, member of Israeli War Cabinet Benny Gantz said "The world must know — and Hamas leaders must know — that if by Ramadan the hostages are not home, then the fighting will continue, including in Rafah."
- This market will resolve to "Yes” Israel and Hamas agree to a hostage deal by 11:59 PM Palestine Standard Time (UTC +2), March 10, 2024.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Note that an announcement by the resolution date of an agreed hostage deal between Israel and Hamas will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when and if the hostage deal actually takes place.
- Note that any hostage deal agreement will suffice, regardless of the number of hostages agreed to be released.
- The primary resolution source will be formal acknowledgments from Hamas and Israel.
