PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.58% 78%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$668.5
Liquidity
$5.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:06 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Futuur10Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
Kalshi30Y US Treasury yield on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026.
- If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for 4.58% is 78%.
CoinRithm reference 4.58% 78% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
