PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 9:50 PM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 3:36 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
5.45%100%
5.36%100%
5.60%93%
5.39%100%
5.42%100%
5.30%Won
5.33%Won
5.36%Won
5.39%Won
5.42%Won
5.45%Won
5.50%Won
5.55%Won
5.60%Won
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026.
- If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
