EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by which date?
3.0 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 66%-11.5pt
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.7K
Liquidity
$14.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
48.0% / 49.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 19, 26, 1:23 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Did the Russians deliberately blow up the Nova Kakhovka dam? (Resolves NO if it was negligence rather than sabotage)
Manifold MarketsRussia military action against EU country by which date?
PolymarketEU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?
PolymarketWill any EU country or NATO stop sharing intelligence with the United States by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the national government of any European Union member state officially attributes a qualifying attack on its territory to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying attack is an act of sabotage or arson, the placement or detonation of an explosive or incendiary device, or a physical attack on persons or property, carried out within the territory of an EU member state on or after August 1, 2026.
- The following will not qualify: cyber operations; electronic interference such as GPS jamming or spoofing; espionage, surveillance, or reconnaissance; disinformation or influence operations; violations of airspace or territorial waters; drones, missiles, or other munitions launched by Russian armed forces, whether or not they are intercepted; and threats or plots that were not carried out.
- A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the relevant country acting in an official capacity stating that the attack was carried out, ordered, or directed by the Russian state, including its armed forces or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions.
- Criminal charges filed by that state’s prosecutors alleging that the attack was carried out on behalf of the aforementioned Russian state services will also qualify.