PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 6%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$26.1
Liquidity
$14.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
20.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-1.0%
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 25, 26, 1:52 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Volume trend
$26Jul 215d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.