PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94.1%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$15.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
4
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
May 25, 26, 1:52 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill Ekrem Imamoglu leave jail by the end of 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
- If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
- Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
- Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-32.1pt53.6%
- Delcy Rodríguez+31.5pt45.4%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $713.5K
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Total Vol
- $22.5M
- 24h Vol
- $562K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.6M
- 24h Vol
- $464.3K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 94% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? resolve?
- Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Ekrem İmamoğlu released from custody in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.