Canada imposes Welland Canal toll on US ships by September 30?
0.8 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffGeopolitics22d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%+0.8pt
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$596.8
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.1% / 6.1%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 5:51 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, or an authorized representative of Canada — including a state-owned enterprise — publicly and officially announces the imposition of new tolls that apply specifically to ships traversing the Welland Canal that are bound for, originating from, or flagged to the United States ("US-targeted Welland tolls"), between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For purposes of this market, the St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation will be considered a state-owned enterprise of Canada.
- The tolls must apply specifically to US-bound, US-originating, or US-flagged vessels; new tolls or toll adjustments applying to all canal traffic generally, including ordinary-course tariff updates, will not qualify.
- A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Canada's present implementation of US-targeted Welland tolls, previously-unannounced prior implementation of US-targeted Welland tolls, or definitive decision to implement US-targeted Welland tolls.
- A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify US-targeted Welland tolls.
