PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Lula 97%+0.1ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$122.2K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 10:26 AM UTCOct 4, 26, 6:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí
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PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Limitless2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
Manifold MarketsWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
FutuurRules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
- Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará.
- If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market.
- This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
- If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
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- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Ceará?
- Polymarket prices Lula at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Ceará resolve?
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Ceará is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2026.
- How is Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Ceará settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.